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Journal of Global Health

International Society of Global Health

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Journal of Global Health's content profile, based on 18 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Patterns and Predictors of Dropout in Maternal Continuum of Care: A Comprehensive Analysis in Bangladesh

Priyanka, S. S.; Sujon, M. S. H.; Farzana, A.; Dasgupta, D. P.; Bhuyan, G. S.; Ali, N. B.

2026-04-22 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.04.20.26351272 medRxiv
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Dropout from essential maternal health services across pregnancy, childbirth, and the postnatal period remains a major barrier to improving maternal and neonatal outcomes in Bangladesh. This study examined stage-specific dropout patterns along the maternal continuum of care and identified factors associated with discontinuation. We analysed nationally representative data from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2022 for 5,162 women with a recent live birth. Dropout from antenatal care, skilled birth attendance, and postnatal care was examined using multivariable logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals, with comparisons to BDHS 2017-18 and assessment of regional variation. Only 44% of women received four or more antenatal care visits. Of these, 33% delivered with a skilled birth attendant, and among those receiving both antenatal care and skilled delivery, only 15% received postnatal care within 48 hours. Overall, 57% dropped out before completing adequate antenatal care, with additional dropouts between antenatal care and delivery (10%) and between delivery and postnatal care (18%). Compared with 2017-18, overall dropout from the maternal continuum of care more than doubled in 2022 (5.0% to 11.7%), driven by increased antenatal care dropout, while skilled birth attendance dropout declined and postnatal care dropout increased slightly. Higher maternal education, household wealth, media exposure, and womens decision-making power were consistently associated with lower odds of dropout, whereas higher birth order increased dropout risk. Substantial regional variation was observed, with the highest overall dropout in Sylhet and the lowest in Khulna. High dropout from the maternal continuum of care in Bangladesh occurs predominantly at the antenatal care stage and is shaped by socioeconomic status, birth order, womens access to information, and regional disparities. Strengthening early antenatal engagement and womens decision-making autonomy is critical to improving continuity of maternal care and reducing preventable maternal and neonatal risks.

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Determinants of Skilled Birth Attendance in Nigeria: A Population-Based Analysis of the 2018 Demographic and Health Survey

Unegbu, U. L.

2026-04-23 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.23.26350432 medRxiv
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Background: Nigeria bears one of the highest maternal mortality burdens globally, with skilled birth attendance (SBA) remaining critically low in many regions. Understanding the independent determinants of SBA is essential for designing targeted interventions. Methods: This cross sectional study analyzed 21,465 births from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS), a nationally representative household survey using stratified two stage cluster sampling. SBA was defined as delivery attended by a doctor, nurse, midwife, or auxiliary midwife. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with 95% confidence intervals for the associations between SBA and maternal education, household wealth, place of residence, geopolitical region, maternal age, parity, and antenatal care (ANC) utilization, after accounting for confounding. Results: The overall prevalence of SBA was 44.9%. In the fully adjusted model, higher education (aOR = 7.01, 95% CI: 5.68-8.67), richest wealth quintile (aOR = 6.27, 95% CI: 5.27-7.46), and attending [≥]4 ANC visits (aOR = 3.80, 95% CI: 3.51-4.11) were the strongest independent predictors of SBA. Regional inequalities were pronounced, with SBA prevalence ranging from 17.7% in the North West to 85.6% in the South West. Crude effect estimates for education and wealth were substantially attenuated after adjustment, indicating large confounding by correlated socioeconomic factors. Conclusions: Maternal education, household wealth, ANC utilization, and geopolitical region are independent determinants of SBA in Nigeria. Scaling up ANC programs represents the most immediately actionable intervention, while long term gains require investment in girls' education and wealth equity. Targeted strategies for the northern regions are urgently needed. Keywords: skilled birth attendance, maternal mortality, Nigeria, DHS, antenatal care, logistic regression, health equity

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Analyzing Access to Surgical Services in Central Equatoria State, South Sudan: A Baseline Cross-Sectional Assessment to Inform National Surgical Policy and Planning

Deng, M. D. A.; Alayande, B. T.; Sheferaw, E. D.; Ngutete Mukundwa, P.; Fofanah, T.; Peter, M. B.; Kuron, D.; Bekele, A.; Dau, A. D.

2026-04-22 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.20.26351353 medRxiv
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BackgroundAccess to safe, equitable, and affordable surgical and anesthesia care is critical to reducing the burden of surgical diseases in Africa. To understand the state of access in South Sudan, we conducted a baseline assessment of surgical services in Central Equatoria State (CES) in May 2024. ObjectivesThis study aimed to survey public healthcare facilities in CES capable of providing essential surgical services. We used the capacity to perform cesarean section, laparotomy, and open fracture management--Bellwether procedures--as a proxy for assessing workforce, infrastructure, financing, information management, and service delivery. MethodsWe used a validated and contextualized Surgical Assessment Tool developed by the Harvard Program on Global Surgery and Social Change and the World Health Organization. Data were collected at the facility level and summarized descriptively using percentages, means (standard deviations), medians (minimum, maximum), and visualized in graphs, charts, and tables. ResultsAll three public health facilities assessed could perform Bellwether procedures for their catchment populations. However, workforce availability, financing, and surgical infrastructure were major constraints. The surgical workforce density was 2.27 surgical, anesthesia, and obstetric specialists per 100,000 population. Specialized procedures--such as repair of cleft lip and palate, clubfoot, and hydrocephalus shunt--were unavailable at all sites. None had magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) machines. The total average annual facility budget was $918,850, ranging from $3,960 to $800,000 at the teaching hospital--insufficient for proper operations. ConclusionWhile Bellwether procedures are routinely performed, access to quality and affordable care is compromised by deficits in workforce, financing, and infrastructure. We recommend that the Ministry of Health scale this survey nationally and develop a surgical policy and strategic plan focused on improving infrastructure, workforce, and financing for surgical and anesthesia care in South Sudan.

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Patterns of maternal transport in a state with levels of maternal care and no formal perinatal regions

Li, J.; Steimle, L. N.; Carrel, M.; Byrd, R. A.; Radke, S. M.

2026-04-22 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.04.20.26351263 medRxiv
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PurposeTo characterize maternal transport patterns in Iowa, a state with levels of maternal care and without formal perinatal regions, and assess whether transport decisions reflect efficient, risk-appropriate coordination. MethodsWe analyzed 2010-2023 Iowa birth records, which included 2,251 maternal transports between obstetric facilities across 106 unique routes. We characterized transport patterns and applied a community detection algorithm to identify "communities" of obstetric facilities that disproportionately transport among themselves. FindingsSuburban and rural counties have elevated transport rates compared to urban counties. 2,189 transports (97%) were from lower-to higher-level facilities. Among these, 2,037 (93%) were to Level III tertiary care centers. 567 transports (25.2%) bypassed a closer facility offering an equivalent or higher level of care than its destination facility. Health system affiliation was associated with bypassing transport, indicating potential organizational rather than purely geographic drivers of transport decisions. Three "communities" of obstetric facilities largely shaped by geographic proximity were identified. ConclusionsAlthough Iowa does not have formal perinatal regions, patterns of maternal transport are mostly in line with three de facto regions. Some potential inefficiencies were identified, such as obstetric facilities transporting to a farther facility when a closer facility offered the same level of care or higher. These findings may help identify opportunities to enhance care coordination among obstetric facilities, optimize maternal transport networks, and improve regionalization of maternal care.

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Sociodemographic determinants of maternal health indicators in conflict-affected counties of Kenya: secondary analysis of data from the 2022 Kenya demographic and health survey

Wandji Djouonang, B.; Olungah, C. O.; Atsali, E.; Kihara, A.-B.; Omanwa, K.; Obimbo, M. M.; Ogengo, J.

2026-04-24 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351520 medRxiv
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Objective To analyse sociodemographic determinants of maternal health indicators in Kenyas conflict-affected regions. Methods A cross-sectional secondary analysis of the 2022 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS) was conducted. Conflict-affected counties were identified using ACLED (>25 fatalities). The sample included 1,060 women aged 15-49 years. Outcomes were adequate antenatal care (ANC 4+), facility delivery, and skilled birth attendance (SBA). Predictors included age, education, wealth, employment, residence, and county; intimate partner violence was adjusted for. Weighted descriptive statistics, chi-square tests, and multivariable logistic regression were applied (p<0.05). Results Six counties met conflict criteria. While 90.2% of women attended at least one ANC visit, only 53.5% achieved ANC 4+. Facility delivery and SBA were 68.2% and 72.2%, respectively. Adolescents (15-19) were least likely to attain adequate ANC; women aged 20-24 had higher odds (aOR=1.83; 95% CI: 1.01-3.34). Education strongly predicted outcomes: higher education increased ANC 4+ (aOR=2.74; 95% CI: 1.19-6.34) and facility delivery (aOR=2.72; 95% CI: 1.15-6.47). Wealth showed strong gradients: middle quintile increased facility delivery (aOR=5.50; 95% CI: 2.14-14.14), while richer quintile increased SBA (aOR=11.04; 95% CI: 2.06-59.25). Rural residence reduced facility delivery (aOR=0.32) and SBA (aOR=0.22). County disparities persisted. IPV was not independently associated. Conclusion Maternal health indicators in conflict-affected Kenya follow a marked inequity gradient. Adolescents, rural residents, and socioeconomically disadvantaged women are most excluded. Strengthening adolescent ANC continuity, reducing rural access barriers, and investing in education and economic empowerment are critical for improving outcomes.

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Beyond Citations: Identifying Transformational Research in Hypospadias Through Bibliometrics and the Disruption Index

Abbas, T.; Naznine, M.; Mykha, M.; Mancha, M.; Hardas, A.; Raharja, P. A. R.; Chowdhury, M. E. H.

2026-04-20 urology 10.64898/2026.04.18.26351160 medRxiv
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Hypospadias, a common congenital anomaly requiring surgical correction, has seen growing research in surgical techniques and outcomes. However, no comprehensive bibliometric or disruption-based analysis exists to map the fields evolution. This study uses bibliometrics and the Disruption Index (DI) to identify key transformational research in hypospadias. A systematic search of five databases (PubMed, Web of Science, ScienceDirect, Scopus, and Dimensions) from January 1990 to December 2023 was conducted, yielding 7,732 articles. After applying inclusion criteria, 200 studies were analyzed. Citation data and DI scores were calculated using OpenCitations. Spearmans rank test assessed correlations between DI and citation metrics. A subgroup analysis identified trends based on the latest hypospadias research priorities. The mean citation count was 72.3 (SD = 43.1) with a mean DI of 0.011 (SD = 0.17). Five studies, focusing on complications, analgesia, and surgical techniques, had the highest DI (1.0). A moderate positive correlation was found between DI and citation rate ({rho} = 0.405, p < 0.001). Subgroup analysis showed most research focused on surgical techniques (30.5%) and etiology (25.8%), while areas like surgical training (2.6%) and innovation (0%) were underrepresented. This study identifies critical gaps in hypospadias research. The DI reveals influential studies that redirect research trajectories. Future work should focus on innovation and translational research to accelerate advancements in hypospadias care.

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On the robustness of ethnic and socio-cultural determinants of healthcare decision-making autonomy among Hausa, Fulani, and Kanuri women in Northern Nigeria.

OGUNETIMOJU, A. M.; AJEBORIOGBON, S. A.

2026-04-22 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351355 medRxiv
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BackgroundWomens autonomy in healthcare decision-making has become one of the most critical yet inequitably distributed determinants of health outcomes, gender equity, and sustainable development worldwide. In Northern Nigeria, the presence of ethnic and socio-cultural inequality is frequently concealed by the aggregated statistics of a region. MethodsThis cross-sectional secondary analysis utilized the 2024 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. The sample included 9,998 married women (15-49 years) identifying as Hausa, Fulani, or Kanuri in Northern Nigeria. Healthcare autonomy was categorized as husband/partner alone, respondent alone, or joint decision-making. Analysis included weighted descriptive statistics, Rao-Scott adjusted chi-square tests for residential associations, and complex sample multinomial logistic regression to identify multivariable correlates while adjusting for sampling weights, strata, and clusters. ResultsMean age was 30.38 years. Most participants lacked formal education (69.6%) and resided in rural areas (72.0%). Husband-only decision-making predominated (72.6%), while 22.5% reported joint and 4.9% independent autonomy. Joint decision-making was significantly higher in urban (33.3%) than rural areas (18.3%; Adjusted F=50.892, p<0.001). In adjusted models (Reference: Kanuri), Hausa and Fulani women had substantially lower odds of joint decision-making relative to husband-only outcomes. Rural residence correlated with lower odds of both independent and joint agency. Notably, wealth status was not a significant predictor after adjustment (p > 0.05). ConclusionsEthnicity and residence are robust determinants of healthcare autonomy among women in Northern Nigeria, persisting regardless of education or wealth. This "socio-cultural paradox" suggests that economic interventions alone are insufficient. Policies must complement socioeconomic approaches with culturally responsive strategies addressing household power dynamics and entrenched social norms.

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Examining the Implementation Process and Experience of Health Facility Autonomy Reforms in Kenya: A mixed methods study of counties in Kenya

Musiega, A.; Nzinga, J.; Amboko, B.; Ochieng, H.; Maritim, B.; Muthuri, R.; Mbau, R.; Tsofa, B.; Mugo, P.; Bukosia, J.; Wangia, E.; Ali, K.; Rapando, R.; Mugambi, J.; Wandei, S.; Tole, V.; Vill, B.; Obanda, M. D.; Munteyian, L.; Wong, E.; Mazzilli, C.; Nganga, W.; Musuva, A.; Murira, F.; Vilcu, I.; Boxshall, M.; Ravishankar, N.; Barasa, E.

2026-04-23 health economics 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351442 medRxiv
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Background Kenya's facility autonomy reforms are intended to improve health system equity, efficiency, and responsiveness to community needs by shifting decision-making to the frontline. This study evaluates the implementation process and experience of facility autonomy reforms in Kenya post devolution of health services. Methods We conducted a concurrent mixed methods study of counties (n=6) in Kenya, selected based on their implementation of facility financial autonomy reforms as of June 2023. For the quantitative aspect, we assessed 141 randomly selected public health facilities across all levels of service provision. We then did a descriptive analysis to measure the level and perceptions of autonomy. For the qualitative aspect, we reviewed documents and interviewed purposively selected stakeholders (n=71) involved with autonomy reforms at national, county, and facility levels, cutting across health, finance, legal, political and community actors. We analyzed the transcripts thematically using NVivo 12. Results The emergence of the FIF reforms in Kenya was driven by the convergence of political, technical, and public needs. While counties have developed their own facility autonomy laws to fit local contexts, some provisions are not fully aligned with the national legislation. Some aspects of both the county specific and national laws are not implemented. These include allocation of matching funds from the exchequer and reimbursing facilities for expenses incurred from providing care to indigents and for unpaid bills. The implementation of autonomy also varies, with some aspects partially or not implemented. Autonomy reforms have contributed to improved decision-making, staff satisfaction, availability of essential medicines, and facility maintenance. However, challenges have emerged, including the failure of counties to provide matching funds, which disproportionately affects lower-level facilities that do not generate revenue. Additionally, the absence of waiver repayment mechanisms has led to inequities, and the risk of increased service costs threatens financial accessibility for marginalized populations. Conclusion Facility autonomy reforms support people-centered decision-making and aligns with PHC principles. While these reforms hold promise for improving service delivery and access, their success depends on complementary measures such as sustainable funding mechanisms and stronger protections for vulnerable populations.

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Vision, hearing, and intellectual disabilities in school-age children (5-19 years) in Latin America and the Caribbean

Coelho, J. A. P. d. M.; Nascimento da Paixao, A.; Guimaraes Almeida, B.; Näslund-Hadley, E.

2026-04-23 health economics 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351429 medRxiv
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Background Childhood sensory and intellectual disabilities represent significant yet under-recognized barriers to learning and human capital development. This study analyzes prevalence and severity of these conditions among 149.3 million children aged 5-19 years across 25 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) using Global Burden of Disease 2023 data. Methods We extracted GBD 2023 estimates for vision loss, hearing loss, and intellectual disability across 25 LAC countries, stratified by age, sex, and severity. Regional estimates were calculated using population-weighted averages. Severity distributions were compared with OECD countries to contextualize regional patterns. Results: These conditions are estimated to affected 9,282,921 children (6.22%; 95% UI: 5.89-6.54%). Hearing loss was predominant, affecting an estimated 5.42 million (3.63%, 3.41-3.86), with 87.6% mild-to-moderate. Intellectual disability estimated to affected 2.56 million (1.71%, 1.58-1.85), with 61.7% borderline-to-mild. Vision loss estimated to affected 1.30 million (0.87%, 0.79-0.96), with 89% that can be effectively addressed with spectacles. Prevalence increased with age across all conditions. Male predominance was consistent for intellectual disability (2.00% vs 1.42%). Annual economic cost totaled US$19.3-29.0 billion, while comprehensive interventions would require US$9.45-14.23 billion with benefit-cost ratios of 2:1 to 15:1. Conclusions The distribution of children across milder levels of difficulty underscores the opportunity for education and public health systems to provide timely and accessible support. With approximately 88% of sensory impairments addressable through established technologies, investments in inclusive services can yield strong social and economic returns.

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Impact of a Community Based Positive Deviance Hearth Intervention on Feeding Practices Among Malnourished Children Aged 6-59 Months in Bomet County Kenya

Koskei, G.; Karanja, S.; Ndugu, Z. W.; Anino, C. O.

2026-04-23 nutrition 10.64898/2026.04.18.26351171 medRxiv
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Child undernutrition remains a major public health challenge in Kenya. Suboptimal feeding practices contribute significantly to persistent underweight and stunting. This study evaluated the effect of a community-based Positive Deviance Hearth (PDH) intervention on feeding practices among children aged 6-59 months in Sub County within a County of study. The study adopted a two-group pretest-posttest randomized experimental study design conducted for six months period, among 84 caregiver-child pairs in intervention and control groups. A multi-stage sampling was employed to identify study settings and participants. Structured and pretested questionnaires, 24-hour food recall questionnaires and meal diversity questionnaires were used for data collection at pre-intervention and post-intervention periods. Data was analyzed using R software v.4.5.2. The differences between intervention and control groups at baseline and endline were assessed using difference-in-difference analysis, relevantly summarized using adjusted DID estimates, 95% confidence intervals and p-values, with p<0.05 considered significant. The PDH intervention significantly improved feeding practices among children 6-59 months. Meal frequency increased for 9-23 months (DiD = +1.4; 95% CI: 1.2-1.7; p = 0.034) and 24 months and above (DiD = +1.2; 95% CI: 1.1-1.5; p = 0.017), and dietary diversity rose (DiD = +1.3; 95% CI: 1.1-1.9; p < 0.001). Nutrient-dense food consumption improved, including legumes (DiD = +32.6%; p < 0.001) and animal-source foods (DiD = +35.4%; p < 0.001). Energy and protein intake increased across all age groups (p < 0.05), and micronutrients iron, vitamin A, vitamin C also rose significantly (p < 0.05). The PDH intervention substantially improved caregiver feeding practices, increased dietary diversity, and enhanced macro- and micronutrient intake, demonstrating its effectiveness as a scalable, community-driven strategy for sustainably improving child nutrition in high-burden settings.

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A Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Multicenter Clinical Study of Chuanzhi Tongluo Capsule in Acute Ischemic Stroke (CONCERN): Study Rationale and Design

Yang, D.; Li, G.; Song, J.; Shi, X.; Xu, X.; Ma, J.; Guo, C.; Liu, C.; Yang, J.; Li, F.; Zhu, Y.; Zi, W.; Ding, Q.; Chen, Y.

2026-04-23 neurology 10.64898/2026.04.20.26351260 medRxiv
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Abstract Background: Acute ischemic stroke (AIS) remains a significant cause of disability worldwide. Current treatments, primarily intravenous thrombolysis (IVT), are limited by narrow time windows and reperfusion injury, leading to suboptimal outcomes for many patients. Chuanzhi Tongluo (CZTL), a traditional Chinese medicine, has been preliminarily recognized as a novel cerebral protection agent in animal models. Objectives: This trial investigates the efficacy and safety of CZTL capsule in patients with AIS who are not eligible for IVT or who experience early neurological deterioration after IVT. Methods and design: The CONCERN trial is an investigator-initiated, prospective, multicenter, double-blind, parallel-control, randomized clinical study in China. An estimated 1,208 eligible participants will be consecutively randomized to receive CZTL capsule therapy or placebo in 1:1 ratio across approximately 70 stroke centers in China. All enrolled patients are orally administered 2 capsules of CZTL or placebo 3 times a day together with antiplatelet agents for 3 months. Outcomes: The primary endpoint is an excellent functional outcome, defined as a score of 0 or 1 on the mRS at 90 days. Lead safety endpoints included 90-day mortality and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage within 48 hours. Conclusions: Results of CONCERN trial will determine the clinical efficacy and safety of the traditional Chinese medicine CZTL capsule in the treatment of AIS patients. Trial registry number: ChiCTR2300074147 (www.chictr.org.cn).

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Predicting Depressive Symptoms Among Reproductive-Aged Women in Bangladesh Using Bagging Ensemble Machine Learning on Imbalanced Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2022 Data

Mahmud, S.; Akter, M. S.; Ahamed, B.; Rahman, A. E.; El Arifeen, S.; Hossain, A. T.

2026-04-23 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351445 medRxiv
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Background Depressive symptoms among reproductive-aged women represent a major public health concern in low- and middle-income countries, yet systematic screening remains limited. In most population survey datasets, the low prevalence of depression results in severe class imbalance, which challenges conventional machine learning models. Therefore, we develop and evaluate a bagging-based ensemble machine learning framework to predict depressive symptoms among reproductive-aged women using highly imbalanced Bangladesh demographic and health survey (BDHS) 2022 data. Methods The sample comprised women aged 15-49 years drawn from BDHS 2022 data. Depressive symptoms were defined using the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9 [&ge;]10). Candidate predictors were drawn from sociodemographic, reproductive, nutritional, psychosocial, healthcare access, and environmental domains. Feature selection was performed using Elastic Net (EN), Random Forest (RF), and XGBoost model. Five classifiers (EN, RF, Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM)) were trained using both oversampling-based approaches and the proposed ensemble framework. Model performance was evaluated on an independent test set using accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, F1-score, and the normalized Matthews correlation coefficient (normMCC). Results Approximately 4.8% of women were identified with depressive symptoms. The proposed bagging ensemble framework consistently achieved more balanced predictive performance than oversampling-based models. Average normMCC improved from 0.540 (oversampling) to 0.557 (ensemble). RF and GBM ensembles demonstrated notable improvements in identifying depressive cases, while the EN ensemble achieved the highest overall performance and sensitivity. Threshold optimization yielded stable normMCC across models, indicating robust trade-offs between sensitivity and specificity. Conclusions Bagging-based ensemble learning provides a more robust and balanced approach than synthetic oversampling for predicting depressive symptoms in highly imbalanced population survey data. This approach has important implications for improving early identification and population-level mental health surveillance in resource-constrained settings.

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The epidemiological transition in Vietnam, 1990-2023: a Global Burden of Disease 2023 analysis

Bui, L. V.; Nguyen, D. N.

2026-04-24 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351624 medRxiv
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Background. Vietnam's disease burden has shifted from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes to non-communicable diseases (NCDs), but the tempo, drivers, and regional positioning of this transition have not been jointly quantified. We characterised Vietnam's epidemiological transition 1990-2023 against ten Southeast-Asian (SEA) peers. Methods. Using Global Burden of Disease 2023 data, we computed joinpoint-regression AAPC with 95% CI (BIC-penalised, up to three break-points) for age-standardised DALY rates and cause-composition shares. We applied Das Gupta three-factor decomposition to 1990-2023 absolute DALY change (population-size, age-structure, age-specific-rate effects) and benchmarked Vietnam's NCD share against an SDI-conditional peer trajectory via leave-one-out quadratic regression. Premature mortality was quantified as WHO 30q70 under both broad NCD and strict SDG 3.4.1 definitions, using Chiang II life-table adjustment identically across all eleven countries. Findings. The CMNN age-standardised DALY rate fell from 13,295.9 to 4,022.1 per 100,000 (AAPC -4.63%/year; 95% CI -4.80 to -4.46); the NCD rate fell only from 21,688.2 to 19,282.8 (AAPC -0.37; -0.45 to -0.30). NCD share of total DALYs rose from 52.99% to 70.67% (+17.67 pp; AAPC +1.09). Vietnam ranked fourth of eleven SEA countries in 2023 (up from sixth in 1990) and sat 5.3% above the SDI-expected trajectory. Das Gupta decomposition attributed the +10.63 million NCD DALY increase to population growth (+6.26 M) and ageing (+6.08 M); rate change removed only 1.71 M. Premature NCD mortality fell from 25.02% to 21.80% (broad, 12.9% reduction) and from 22.17% to 19.50% (SDG 3.4.1, 12.0%; Vietnam sixth of eleven) - far short of the SDG 3.4 one-third-reduction target. Interpretation. Vietnam has entered a disability- and ageing-dominated NCD phase. Meeting SDG 3.4 by 2030 requires population-scale primary prevention sized to demographic momentum.

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Implementation of SMS and voice message reminders to reduce childhood immunization dropout rate in urban settings: A Pilot Study in Lome-Togo in 2026

Badarou, S.; Attah, K. M.; Gounon, K. H.; Dali, A. S.; Sire, X. R.; Dia, E. C.

2026-04-20 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.19.26350799 medRxiv
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ObjectiveThis study aimed to assess the effectiveness of SMS and voice message reminders in reducing the dropout rate in Lome-Togo, in 2026. MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional study between October 2025 and March 2026 in the Grand Lome region. The intervention consisted of an integrated digital system used by health facilities to send automated SMS. Categorical variables were described in terms of frequency and proportion; Fishers exact test was used to compare proportions. Quantitative variables were described by their means accompanied by their standard deviation; the Wilcoxon rank-sum test was used to compare means. The significance level for statistical tests was set at 5%. ResultsA total of 30 health facilities were included. Seventy percent (70.0%) of the health facilities used messages associated with calls. Ninety percent (90.0%) of participants found the reminders useful, and 60.0% reported an improvement in Expanded Program on Immunization services related to their use. Among participants who received a reminder, 51.0% kept their vaccination appointments. The Penta 1/3 dropout rate decreased from 3.2% before the intervention to 1.3% (p < 0.001). Among the 323 parents of children included, only 20.74% reported receiving a reminder by phone. Sixty-point-five percent (60.5%) preferred to receive both text messages and voice calls. ConclusionThis study demonstrates the operational feasibility of an SMS/call-based reminder system in reducing dropout rate for childhood vaccination in Togo.

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Effect mechanisms of different malaria chemoprevention regimens in pregnancy on infant growth outcomes: causal mediation analysis of a randomized controlled trial

Nguyen, A. T.; Nankabirwa, J. I.; Kakuru, A.; Roh, M. E.; Aguti, M.; Adrama, H.; Kizza, J.; Olwoch, P.; Kamya, M. R.; Dorsey, G.; Jagannathan, P.; Benjamin-Chung, J.

2026-04-25 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.17.26351121 medRxiv
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Introduction: Intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) has become less effective at preventing malaria due to rising parasite resistance. IPTp with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) alone or in combination with SP (DP+SP) dramatically lowers the risk of malaria in pregnancy compared to SP but is associated with lower birthweight and early life wasting. We estimated the effect of IPTp-DP, DP+SP, and SP on infant growth outcomes and assessed possible treatment mechanisms through a causal mediation analysis. Methods: We used infant follow-up data (N=761) from a trial (NCT04336189) that randomized pregnant women to receive monthly IPTp-DP, SP, or DP+SP. We compared weight-for-length (WLZ) and length-for-age (LAZ) z-scores between treatment arms. We assessed possible mediation through pregnancy, birth, and infancy factors using interventional indirect effect models. Results: Compared to IPTp-SP, IPTp-DP+SP decreased mean WLZ by 0.18 [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.03, 0.39] between 1-3 months and 0.28 (95% CI 0.07, 0.49) between 4-6 months, with the largest differences among primigravidae. Lower risk of active placental malaria in IPTp-DP+SP helped reduce differences in mean WLZ vs IPTp-SP (+0.06, 95% CI 0.02, 0.10). The IPTp-DP+SP arm had up to 0.28 lower mean LAZ between 7-13 months compared to IPTp-DP, particularly among children who were wasted between 0-6 months; low birthweight had a persistent, mediating effect on linear growth. Conclusion: Adverse birth outcomes contributed to early growth faltering among children born to mothers receiving IPTp-DP+SP vs IPTp-SP, but the prevention of placental malaria partially counteracted the negative effects of IPTp-DP+SP on ponderal growth.

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Post-Diarrheal Nutritional Trajectories Among Malnourished Children: A Clustering and Multinomial Modelling Approach

Ogwel, B.; Awuor, A. O.; Onyando, B. O.; Ochieng, R.; Hossain, M. J.; Conteh, B.; Mujahid, W.; Shaheen, F.; Munthali, V.; Malemia, T.; Tapia, M.; Keita, A. M.; Nasrin, D.; Kosek, M. N.; Qadri, F.; Kotloff, K. L.; Pavlinac, P. B.; McQuade, E. T. R.

2026-04-21 nutrition 10.64898/2026.04.20.26351264 medRxiv
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Although the co-occurrence of diarrhea and malnutrition is well documented, research has largely focused on the acute management of diarrheal illness. Despite its importance, longitudinal evidence characterizing post-diarrheal recovery trajectories is sparse. We sought to characterize post-diarrheal nutritional recovery trajectories among children aged 6-35 months who were malnourished at enrollment using data from the Enterics for Global Health (EFGH) Shigella Surveillance study (2022-2024). EFGH enrolled children aged 6-35 months presenting with medically-attended diarrhea and followed them at 4 weeks and 3 months post-enrollment. This analysis included children with baseline wasting, stunting, or underweight (z-score < -2) and complete anthropometric follow-up. Latent class mixed-effects models were used to identify distinct post-diarrheal growth trajectories based on changes in anthropometric z-scores over time. Multinomial modified Poisson regression models examined associations between baseline factors and trajectory membership. Among 9,480 enrolled children, 16.5% (n=1,561) were wasted, 22.7% (n=2,155) stunted, and 21.0% (n=1,994) underweight at baseline. Wasting showed greater recovery potential (80.8%) compared with stunting (38.5%) and underweight (40.3%). Recovery was shaped by factors across multiple levels. Clinical severity markers ( prolonged diarrhea, dehydration, and hypoxemia) increased the risk of nutritional failure. Age also influenced outcomes: infants were more likely to worsen, whereas older toddlers more often experienced stagnation. Interventions including exclusive breastfeeding, oral rehydration therapy, appropriate antibiotics, and zinc supplementation, improved outcomes, while unimproved sanitation undermined recovery. These findings highlight the need for integrated strategies combining infection control, nutritional rehabilitation, and water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions tailored to the childrens developmental stage. Key MessagesO_LIPost-diarrheal nutritional recovery is highly heterogeneous, with wasting showing the greatest potential for improvement, while stunting and underweight often result in persistent growth stagnation. C_LIO_LIBaseline anthropometric deficits alone are insufficient to predict recovery, highlighting the need for dynamic monitoring and individualized management. C_LIO_LIInfants are particularly vulnerable to acute nutritional deterioration, while older toddlers frequently experience growth stagnation. C_LIO_LIModifiable protective factors including exclusive breastfeeding, ORS, zinc, and appropriate antibiotics, improved outcomes, whereas poor sanitation undermined recovery. C_LIO_LIIntegrated strategies, tailored to a childs developmental stage, combining clinical care, nutrition, and environmental interventions are critical to support sustained child growth and development. C_LI

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Cost analysis of a nationwide typhoid conjugate vaccine campaign in Burkina Faso

Koulidiati, J.-L.; Zoma, R. L.; Nebie, E. I.; Soumaila, Y.; Neya, C. O.; Kiendrebeogo, J. A.; Debellut, F.

2026-04-25 health economics 10.64898/2026.04.17.26350856 medRxiv
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Background: In Burkina Faso, typhoid fever remains a major public health concern, with a high incidence among children younger than 15 years of age. To address this burden, the country introduced typhoid conjugate vaccine in January 2025 through a national vaccination campaign reaching children aged 9 months to 14 years. This study aimed to estimate the cost of typhoid conjugate vaccine delivery during the national campaign and to identify the main cost drivers across different administrative levels. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional, retrospective costing study using a microcosting approach from the government perspective. We collected data from fifty health facilities, eight health districts, five health regions, and the national level. Financial and economic costs were estimated for each level, excluding vaccine and syringe costs. All costs were converted to 2024 USD using the official exchange rate. Findings: Vaccinators administered a total of 10.5 million typhoid conjugate vaccine doses. The average financial cost per dose was $0.47 (95% CI: $0.39-$0.51), and the economic cost was $2.16 (95% CI: $1.71-$2.56). Human resources and per diem payments were the main contributors to costs. Costs varied by geography, delivery strategy, and security context, with higher costs observed in rural and conflict-affected areas. The mobile-temporary posts strategy had the highest economic cost per dose ($2.02; 95% CI: $1.64-$2.40), while the fixed strategy had the highest financial cost per dose ($0.41; 95% CI: ($0.32-$0.49). Conclusion: The financial cost per dose remained within Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance's operational support range. The observed cost variations highlight the need for targeted funding and enhanced logistical support to ensure equitable access, particularly in rural and insecure areas. This study provides evidence to inform future vaccination campaigns and supports decision-making for typhoid conjugate vaccine introduction in other countries in the region.

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Defining influenza epidemic zones through temporal clustering of global surveillance data

Hassell, N.; Marcenac, P.; Bationo, C. S.; Hirve, S.; Tempia, S.; Rolfes, M. A.; Duca, L. M.; Hammond, A.; Wijesinghe, P. R.; Heraud, J.-M.; Pereyaslov, D.; Zhang, W.; Kondor, R. J.; Azziz-Baumgartner, E.

2026-04-25 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.17.26351048 medRxiv
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Introduction: Modeling when influenza epidemics typically occur can help countries optimize surveillance, time clinical and public health interventions, and reduce the burden of influenza. Methods: We used influenza virus detections reported during 2011-2024 by 180 countries to the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System, excluding COVID-19 pandemic impacted years (2020-2023). We analyzed data by calendar year (week 1-52) or shifted year (week 30-29) time windows, based on when most influenza detections occurred in each country. For countries with sufficient data, we computed generalized additive models (GAMs) of each country's weekly influenza-positive tests to smooth and impute time series distributions. From these GAMs, we calculated each country's normalized weekly influenza burden. Country-specific normalized time series were grouped using hierarchical k-means clustering reducing the Euclidean distance between time series within clusters. We calculated cluster-specific GAMs to estimate average seasonal timing. Countries without sufficient data were assigned to a cluster based on population-weighted latitudinal distance to a cluster's mean latitude. Results: We identified five clusters, or epidemic zones, from 111 countries with sufficient data. The influenza burden in epidemic zones A and B was consistent with a northern hemisphere pattern, with most influenza detections occurring during October-April (A) and September-March (B), while epidemic zones D and E were characterized by southern hemisphere-like seasonal timing, with most influenza burden occurring during May-November. Epidemic zone C had most influenza burden occurring during September-March; most countries assigned to this cluster were in the tropics. Conclusion: Epidemic zones may serve as a useful tool to strengthen and optimize influenza surveillance for global health decision-making (e.g., during vaccine strain composition discussions) and to guide country preparedness efforts for seasonal influenza epidemics, including the timing of enhanced surveillance, as well as the procurement and delivery of vaccines and antivirals.

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Understanding the Intersection between Midwives Culture, Educational Background and Community Practice in Neonatal Jaundice Care in Ghana: A Qualitative Inquiry

Asamoah, G.; Ani-Amponsah, M.; Badzi, C. D.

2026-04-22 nursing 10.64898/2026.04.18.26350907 medRxiv
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Culture plays a crucial role in health; family, community, culture, and social conventions all have a significant impact on how an infant with jaundice is treated. Written or unwritten rules govern what parents and the community are allowed to do, which may have a detrimental effect on the neonates care. ObjectivesThe study explored how social expectations affect midwives management of neonatal jaundice at the St Patricks hospital in Maase-Offinso, in the Ashanti region of Ghana. MethodA total of seventeen midwives were sampled purposively using an exploratory descriptive design. Participants were engaged in interviews and focus group discussion after ethical approval was obtained. A semi-structured focus group discussion guide and interview guide was used to collect data. ResultsThe study discovered that the treatment of neonatal jaundice was adversely affected by social pressures, misconceptions, maternal choices, and spiritual views. Mothers and midwives socially approved sunbathing, and there were indications that grandmothers disapproved hospital care for their grandchildren. ConclusionCulture, family and social norms cannot be separated from health especially for the neonate whose means of identification is to belong to a family. Consequently, it is essential to respond to social influences, cultural conventions, and the various cultures of families with a culturally sensitive approach.

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Why Patients Choose Spiritual Healers, Alternative Medicine, and Unqualified Practitioners Before Formal Medical Care: An Exploratory Mixed Methods Study in Peri-Urban and Rural Faisalabad, Pakistan

Hamid, S.; Muneez, M.; Saleem, S.

2026-04-24 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351601 medRxiv
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ABSTRACT Background Before obtaining professional medical care, many people in peri-urban and rural Pakistan contact herbalists, spiritual healers, and unlicensed caregivers. This study examined the social, economic, and cultural factors influencing the use of informal care by analysing the health-seeking behaviours of individuals in the Faisalabad District. Methods An exploratory mixed-methods study was conducted in Makkuana and the surrounding villages of Faisalabad District, Punjab. The quantitative component involved a cross-sectional survey of 69 adults using a structured questionnaire adapted from the I-CAM-Q. The qualitative component comprised twelve in-depth interviews and two focus group discussions. Descriptive statistics and chi-square analysis were used for quantitative data. Thematic analysis, guided by the Health Belief Model and Andersen's Behavioural Model, was applied to qualitative data. Results The mean age of participants was 40.4 years; 62.3% were female, and 79.7% had monthly household incomes below PKR 60,000. Of the 69 participants, 68 (98.6%) sought care from an informal provider first, most commonly an unqualified practitioner (50.7%), herbal practitioner (29.0%), or homeopath (17.4%). Trust was the leading reason for provider choice (43.5%), followed by proximity (24.6%) and low cost (15.9%). Complications were reported by 21.7% of participants, and 39.1% later required formal care for the same illness. Eight qualitative themes emerged: structural and economic barriers to formal care; proximity and convenience as determinants of informal care; trust, familiarity, and social networks; cultural and religious normalisation of traditional practices; poor doctor-patient communication in formal settings; perceived safety and naturalness of alternative remedies; awareness deficits about provider qualifications; and treatment-related harm and delayed escalation to formal care. Conclusion Informal health care seeking is nearly universal in this community, driven by intersecting economic, structural, cultural, and interpersonal factors. Enhancing primary care affordability, accessibility, and the quality of provider-patient communication together with culturally sensitive health literacy programs, is essential to redirect care seeking toward qualified providers.